SPX closed last week back above the weekly middle bollinger band and with a strong and rare reversal hammer weekly candlestick. In my weekend post, which you can see here, I looked at the history of these rare candlesticks om SPX going back to the beginning of 1974, and didn’t find any directly comparable candles that did not then continue up to the weekly upper bollinger band, currently at 1873. I am therefore treating last week’s low as the retracement low unless we see strong evidence to the contrary, which would need to start with a decline through strong support in the 1770-4 area. SPX weekly chart: (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
So Now What?
Well I said yesterday morning that the day was going to be a very important test for bulls and so it was, with a massive bull fail as strong support in the 1770 SPX area broke and SPX fell very hard towards the next big support levels. I posted a falling wedge on ES yesterday morning and that broke down with a target in the 1720 ES area. The overnight rally looks a lot like a bear flag so it may be that we are going to see that 1720 target made today. ES 60min chart: (more…)
Accelerating Fear and 10-Year Yields
Further to my post of January 27th, the Momentum indicator on the following 3 Daily ratio charts shows that fear has continued to accelerate in comparison with the SPX, RUT and NDX Indices, even though price hasn’t yet broken and held below their major support levels. (more…)
Test for Bulls
I have commented a couple of times that the left shoulder on the possible H&S forming on SPX took five weeks to form, and that I would expect any right shoulder to take at least two weeks to form. To that extent the very hesitant action at the current lows is not yet a bad fit with this scenario, though it may yet break down towards the next targets without making that right shoulder. If we do see a clear break down below the December low at 1667.99, then I have the next obvious target area slightly under 1700, and that could be reached quickly. SPX weekly chart: (more…)
Uncertain Smile
Back on 15th January with SPX at 1839 I wrote a morning post suggesting that the low just made was of poor quality and giving two trendline targets for a better low. We hit the lower trendline of those two yesterday and for the moment at least we now have a rising channel established from the 1646 low. It may be that this channel won’t last long, and sometimes they don’t, but as long as it survives it is now key support, and that low yesterday may have been the low before a move to the rising wedge target at 1965 begins. What is also worth noting from the daily chart is that we now have possible positive divergence on the daily RSI 5, which delivers the best short term reversal signals on the daily chart. SPX daily chart: (more…)
