We have two days of FOMC this week, and that would generally be bullish, but this FOMC has been heavily trailed as including an extension of the modest taper from last month, and may perhaps include a schedule for the full winding down of QE3 this year. This week’s FOMC may therefore be bearish, and possibly very bearish. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Testing Serious Support
I was talking about the cluster of support levels in the 1768-80 SPX area yesterday morning and the low was at 1773. That has tested the weekly 20 and 50 MAs, and is a second retest of broken wedge resistance. There is a little play left in this support area but if we aren’t to see a much larger correction develop then this is the likely reversal area. SPX weekly chart: (more…)
Testing Serious Support
I was talking about the cluster of support levels in the 1768-80 SPX area yesterday morning and the low was at 1773. That has tested the weekly 20 and 50 MAs, and is a second retest of broken wedge resistance. There is a little play left in this support area but if we aren’t to see a much larger correction develop then this is the likely reversal area. SPX weekly chart:
It may be that the short term low is now in, though I would say that my target at the possible rising channel trendline from 1646 has not yet been hit. if we were to now see a test of yesterday’s low that would open up a possible hit of that trendline and would deliver positive divergence on the 60min RSI. That may not happen but it would be a tidier low. SPX daily chart: (more…)
Feeling the Pinch
The SPX daily bollinger bands have narrowed considerably over the last few weeks, until yesterday morning there were less than thirty points between the upper and lower bands. This compression is a pinch, and these pinches will generally resolve into a move one way or the other that will ride the upper or lower band for several days. If the larger double-top on SPX breaks down today then that should play out to the downside. (more…)
A Case for 1775
I gave the ES range in two parts yesterday morning, 1826 to 1835, and 1835 to 1844. The RTH low yesterday was 1835 dead and the overnight high was 1844 dead. Clearly ES has not yet broken out of the range. There was a sharp decline on the Chinese PMI numbers and ES broke down into the lower half of the range and then retested the 50 hour MA on a bounce. The opening advantage belongs to the bears this morning, and as long as we don’t see a break back over the ES 50 hour MA, currently in the 1837 area, then we may well see a test of range support at 1826 today. ES 60min chart: (more…)
