I gave the ES range in two parts yesterday morning, 1826 to 1835, and 1835 to 1844. The RTH low yesterday was 1835 dead and the overnight high was 1844 dead. Clearly ES has not yet broken out of the range. There was a sharp decline on the Chinese PMI numbers and ES broke down into the lower half of the range and then retested the 50 hour MA on a bounce. The opening advantage belongs to the bears this morning, and as long as we don’t see a break back over the ES 50 hour MA, currently in the 1837 area, then we may well see a test of range support at 1826 today. ES 60min chart: (more…)
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ES Range 1826-35-44
I was expecting SPX/ES to make a new high yesterday morning but it failed just underneath, which was a significant bull fail. ES then went to retest support in the 1826 area, breaking below the pattern trigger level on a small double-top targeting the 1815 ES area, but instead of following through on the break down ES then bounced strongly for the rest of the afternoon, which was a significant bear fail. (more…)
Retracement Support Levels
SPX/ES retraced as expected yesterday and ES bounced at established support in the 1834.50 area. The 50 hour MA, now in the 1840 area, isn’t holding as support so the retracement is ongoing and I’m looking today at some support in the 1830-3 area including the 38.2% fib retrace and the weekly pivot at 1831, and strong established support in the 1825-7 area. Anything lower than 1825 ES would invite a retest of Monday’s low. ES 60min chart: (more…)
Unfinished Business?
I gave two important resistance levels on ES yesterday morning at 1823-5 and 1830, and ES blew through both of them. This action suggests that the retracement low may be in, and if we see SPX break over the last lower high at 1843.45 then the current downtrend will be broken. Furthermore we now have what look like failed double-tops across most US indices, and when these fail there tends to be a strong reaction in the opposite direction, so we may have now started a powerful move up. Nonetheless I think that the retracement low may still be ahead of us, and I’ll show you why I think that may be the case. (more…)
Chop Chop
Direction was hard to call yesterday morning, and as it turned out, SPX went nowhere, though COMPQ, NDX and TRAN all managed solid gains on the day. The W bottom on SPX is now arguably an IHS and if we see a clear break over the neckline today, ideally with an opening gap over it which is not then filled today, then we should see at least a retest of the highs. SPX 60min chart: (more…)
