Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Partying Like It’s 1999

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I didn’t get to the post in RTH today, so I thought I’d do something different today and have a close look at NDX (Nasdaq 100). This is worth doing as there can be little doubt which index has been driving the bull bus in recent months, so I’ve been looking it carefully and am taking the opportunity to share what I’m seeing there tonight, with my normal mainly SPX-centric view back for tomorrow’s post.

The shorter term setup here is a rising channel from the April low within a larger rising channel from the November ’16 lows. The two channel resistance trendlines are intersecting this week in the 5830 area and that is the obvious target for NDX this week.

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An Unusually Bullish Projection

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Editor’s Note: What you are about to read is dead wrong. So keep reading, because there’s a correction later…………

As I mentioned when SlopeCharts was introduced, one advantage of forcing me off ProphetCharts (which I have been using for a dozen years) was that I would get a fresh perspective on the markets. With all my symbols, trendlines, and other embellishments gone, I’d be able to perhaps shake off some old biases (or at least reduce them).

In that spirit, I offer this rather surprising post, in which I offer up the prospect of equity markets rising another 10% or so. Now perhaps my stating such a thing – – me, the permabear, saying something broadly bullish – – will be taken by some as a sign of the market top. I’ll happily exchange ridicule for top-ticking a market in exchange for a true downtrend! But regardless, here we go……….

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Extending and Extended

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I was saying yesterday morning that bulls wanted to hold 2368/9 on the backtest to go higher. The low of the day was 2369.19 and here we are. Short term though there is some formidable resistance at the daily 3sd (three standard deviations away from the middle band) upper band at 2394. Breaks over this level are rare, and an actual retest of the high will likely need to wait until tomorrow, when the 3sd upper band will be higher. SPX daily chart:

170425 SPX Daily

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Aces and Eights

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SPX and NDX made new all time highs on Friday, and the minimum requirement that we were looking for in the high that is forming here has been met. There is a setup for sharp retracement from here, though it’s very much still in the inflection point still, and I’ll be showing you on the last chart why I think the setup favors the bulls, though it could very much go either way.

On the SPX chart there is now a daily RSI 14 sell signal brewing, with NYMO divergence and SPX close to rising wedge resistance. SPX daily chart:

170108 SPX Daily

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