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SPX put in a sixth day riding the daily lower band yesterday, with a touch of the lower band at the low and a hit of falling megaphone resistance at the high. SPX daily chart:
At the high we saw the test I was expecting of falling megaphone resistance, and that overthrew slightly at the high to test the 50 hour MA. After that the day was mostly downhill. So what does this mean? (more…)
There were three significant technical landmarks for me yesterday. The first that double top support on SPX broke down, breaking the third and last support level I gave last Friday morning. The second was that the daily RSI 5 closed under 30, so the daily RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal I’ve been following has now unambiguously made target, though the historic stats on these nonetheless further support that the SPX double-top that has just broken down should make the pattern target in the 1937.70 area. The third was that a daily lower band ride was confirmed with the strong punch below the daily lower band.
So what now? Well the odds favor a lower close today, but not another trend day down. We may see a modest rally close or perhaps a flat close as a less likely but possible alternative. SPX should test the lower band at some point today, and that is currently at 1975. Yesterday’s low is very unlikely to hold and all longs should be counter-trend now until the double top target is hit. SPX daily chart:
SPX made a new high yesterday and closed at 2011.36, only 0.13 over the daily upper band which closed the day at 2011.23. The bears had plenty of time to knock the market down after a new all time high was made in the morning, and failed to do so. The odds that we are starting an upper band ride on SPX improved sharply yesterday.
It’s a struggle to remain objective at a time like this because the last couple of years have conditioned us all to dismiss any bear case at the first sign of trouble, and I’m struggling not to just do that here. The odds of a bullish resolution here are definitely improving, but that’s not a done deal yet, and the stats from my SPX daily RSI5 / NYMO sell signal particularly are warning that we could still see a bearish resolution here, though if we are to see that we would need to see some significant weakness today or at latest on Monday. (more…)
At the end of the two previous QE periods there have been three strong trends that have emerged each time. The first two are a significant pullback in equities and a strong rally on bonds. We may be approaching a significant high on equities soon, and I have a setup for a major further rally in bonds, though that may well only trigger if we see that strong pullback on equities.
The third is a strong rally on USD, and it’s that I would like to talk about today. USD has advanced strongly since hitting 78.93 in May, and I want to show where that is likely to lead over the next few months, and where it might then go over the next few years. (more…)
