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I was saying yesterday morning that the bears needed a fast and hard rejection at the SPX 50 hour MA, and that’s exactly what we saw. That was a serious bull fail, but they could still repair the damage by breaking back over the 50 hour MA with confidence, and that closed at 1883.30 yesterday. SPX 60min chart:
I usually look at 10 year daily charts. Day after day, I examine thousands of these things. Earlier today, I decided to glance at the longer-term picture of a couple of important indexes. Below are the 20-year charts of, respectively, the Dow Jones Composite and the NASDAQ Composite. Click on each one to see the larger version. (more…)
Well Monday was all set up for the bears, and they blew it. Yesterday was all set up for the bulls, and they blew it too. Of the two the bulls blew it worse in my view, and I’m going to review the very nice topping setups here on all four of the main US indices that I follow.
The first two are SPX and Dow, and on these two there are remarkably similar sequences of three nested double-tops with ultimate downside targets at tests of the broken 2007 highs.
On SPX the first thing to mention is very strong support at 1864, with both the daily middle band and the 50 DMA at 1864 at the close yesterday. If that should break then the first and smallest double-top support level is at the 1850 low. A break below that should be the start of a slide down this series of increasingly large double-tops down to a target in the 1578 area, effectively to retest broken resistance at the 2007 high. That might not all play out of course, but I did mention this target as possibility last summer as it is the obvious technical target for a big retracement here to set up the next big move up. SPX daily chart: (more…)
‘A quarrel in a faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing’
Neville Chamberlain, PM of Great Britain, talking about Czechoslovakia in 1938
Back in 1963 there was an significant milestone in the transition to modern warfare when the the name of the British Ministry of War was changed to the Ministry of Defence. Many other euphemisms about war have been used since then with ‘police actions’, ‘military advisers’ and many others becoming common.
At the same time the absurd situation arose, as the age of empires passed away and the British Empire was dismantled, that the only two remaining true empires, based in Russia and China, posed as anti-imperial powers, with the pejorative description ‘imperialist’ mainly applied by them to Western Powers who had already lost or given away their foreign territories. (more…)
SPX gapped up hard over 1874/5 resistance on Friday morning, and if that had held then that would have been a very bullish breakaway gap. Instead SPX made a very marginal new high before failing hard and filling the gap, and that was not at all bullish. If bears can follow through this week then there will be a very real possibility that the Spring high was made on Friday slightly earlier than usual. (more…)
