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It is ironic that right when most Bears where capitulating, a geopolitical event in a small country far away from the US started something that may potentially lead to the next Bear Market and actually trigger a global meltdown that could make the 2008 crisis look like a small correction.
I think the public is getting awfully excited. Make of it what you will.
There have been three instances since the start of 2013 where on the SPX 15min chart there have been clear lower highs and lows, delivering a clear retracement or consolidation period. The previous two were both short, lasted less than two days before breaking up, and were in effect bull flags. The third retracement started yesterday. Here’s the setup on that chart. I have the obvious initial target for this move in the 1490-4 area, anything lower should deliver a decent retracement lasting considerably longer than the last two:
The main chart for today is the SPX 15min chart. Obviously the declining channel / flag I showed yesterday broke up overnight and a decent short term support trendline has been confirmed at yesterday's low. As I said yesterday morning, this suggests a test of the highs and within the current rising channel there is now room for a test of the 2012 high at 1474. If we see that then strong trendline resistance would be close above and most likely we would have negative divergence on the 60min RSI at that test:
