Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Lot of Wedges (by Springheel Jack)

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The main chart for today is the SPX 15min chart. Obviously the declining channel / flag I showed yesterday broke up overnight and a decent short term support trendline has been confirmed at yesterday's low. As I said yesterday morning, this suggests a test of the highs and within the current rising channel there is now room for a test of the 2012 high at 1474. If we see that then strong trendline resistance would be close above and most likely we would have negative divergence on the 60min RSI at that test:

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Major Support Break (by Springheel Jack)

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The rising wedge on SPX broke down yesterday, and with that break the possibility of a QE fuelled rally into Xmas has died in my view. We have a very significant downtrend in progress and I'm now considering the possibility that we might be in a new bear market, though none of my usual cyclical topping signals are apparent at the 1474 top. 

If we are in a new bear market we will need confirmation of that, and as it happens I have a level and target which should deliver that. First though here is the SPX daily rising wedge that has broken, also showing the close also well below the daily bollinger bands. The overnight action so far isn't encouraging for a bounce today, but I would normally expect the underside of the daily lower bollinger band to be tested on an open below it, and that should be in the 1380-2 SPX area today:

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AAPL Tests 200 DMA (by Springheel Jack)

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I have two scenarios on AAPL here, and given the size of AAPL the way that goes is very important for the wider market. On the bullish scenario the H&S target in the 590-600 area set up a test of the 200 DMA before the next move up. AAPL tested the 200 DMA at 587 yesterday so the downside target on that scenario has now been met. 

On the bearish scenario AAPL keeps falling into the 567.5 area, reversing there at a possible H&S neckline before a bounce into the 610-20 area lasting a couple of weeks. On the next neckline break below 567.5 the target would be in the 430 area, but the real target would be long term trendline support slightly over 400. 

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The End of the Road for Tech Sector Outperformance

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(Editor's Note: Many of you are familiar with Michael Panzner and his book, Financial Armageddon; I was delighted to receive an email from him last night asking if he could contribute to Slope from time to time; here is his first entry………Tim)

Instigated by the breakdown in heavily-weighted constituent Apple,
the Nasdaq-100's index-relative trend has broken below a key uptrend
stretching back to the early-2009 lows. This uptrend has been tested
five times before now, underscoring its significance.

Ndxrelspxbreakdown

With investors waking up to the reality that expectations surrounding
the industry are very high, especially amid a synchronized global
slowdown—not to mention the fact that technology has become a very
crowded trade—the recent breach lends further weight to my bearish views
on the sector (see here and here).

Needless to say, the risk is high that we will see a mad dash for the exits.

(Website: Panzner Insights)