Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Nice Smile and Impressive Beard
In my post on Sunday 1st June I was looking at the historically bearish leaning stats over four of the next six trading days and looking for a modest retracement that we then saw. I also mentioned that the last of those bearish leaning days was today, and that tomorrow through Monday 16th lean strongly bullish. Wednesday and Friday next week are the day before and after the holiday on Thursday 19th June, and lean neutral to slightly bullish historically, and we would often see modest volume and trading ranges, particularly as Friday is also quad witching June opex.
This is the start of a bullish opportunity window that may last for the next month or so particularly as the very important case on the legality of most of Trump’s tariffs being reviewed by the Supreme Court has been delayed until the end of July, and the 90 day window that delayed most of those tariffs in April is currently scheduled to expire on July 9th, with a general 50% tariff on all important from the EU also scheduled to start that day. I am wondering whether we might see a further 30 day delay of that July 9th window into August to land after that key Supreme Court decision.
(more…)Trump 2.0, Powell & Bond Market
Excerpted from the June 8th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (#866):
He’s at it Again
Trump is badgering Powell relentlessly about interest rates. Aside from being great theater (of the absurd), the odds are near zero that the Fed will cut in June and very small they’ll cut in July. CME Group, which we have noted tends to be more of a windsock than an accurate prediction tool, currently sees the winds blowing to the tune of 97.4% “no cut” in June and 83.3% “no cut” in July. Come September they start to favor a .25% cut.
(more…)The Following Twenty-Four
Over the next twenty-four hours, there should be a couple of relatively important market-moving events. First, sometime today, I suspect there will be some kind of “trade talks are going well” pablum from the China/US delegation. As I mentioned, you can expect that vapid nonsense for years at this point. Second, tomorrow morning, an hour before the opening bell, the CPI inflation report comes out.
Setup For a Bull Run on Crypto
In my last posts on In Monday 12th May and Thursday 22nd May I was looking at the possible setup for a retracement on Crypto that might then set up a substantial bull run on Crypto after that retracement was complete. That retracement is not yet necessarily complete, but I think it may well be, so today I want to look at that retracement, explain why I think that may be ending a bit early, and look at the large bullish IHS patterns forming on Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) that may deliver major high retests on both while Bitcoin (BTCUSD) makes substantial new all time highs.
Looking at the daily chart Bitcoin broke below the daily middle band into a test of the lower band, the 50dma and the 100k level. They held as support and Bitcoin is trying to break back over the daily middle band. The daily RSI 5 sell signal reached the full target. If the daily middle band is successfully converted back to support then this retracement is likely complete.
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