Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Up or Down?

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Hello everyone. In my last post I hinted at the fact that if GOOG could go higher, than the market could go higher. Indeed it went higher.

One thing I want to get quickly out of my chest is that I don’t think we are in a Bear Market (I may be wrong).

I think we had a crash after Trump announced its tariffs, and then, as it slowly became more and more clear than the tariffs are not really real, or at least they won’t be what they initially looked like (e.g. read the news today point at a 80% tariffs for China, not 145%, the US President said), well, I think a lot of investors started to correct the initial panic, algos started to buy, and the “Bear Market” is formally over. Can it come back again? Yes, of course, but I see more “quick shocks” rather than prolonged downtrends.

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Assessing Bear Flag Inflection Point

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In my post on 17th April I posted some 15min charts with arrows showing an ideal path to forming bear flag wedges on SPX, QQQ and DIA. I added one for IWM in the post after that. I’ve updated these since but left the original arrows where I first drew them for reference on the last four charts today so you can see I wasn’t that far off.

In my post on Tuesday 29th April I was saying that ideally we would see a modest decline (by recent standards) to play out some negative divergence on SPX, QQQ, ES and NQ and we saw that play out over the next few days with all the hourly and 15min sell signals I mentioned in that post reaching target. After that I was looking for another and probably last leg up within those bear flags and since then we have seen new rally highs on all four.

In my last post on Thursday 1st May I was looking for more upside with a likely high early this week, and that hasn’t quite delivered, though I think there is a good case for seeing my target area hit today or tomorrow.

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High Probability, Low Expectations

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The Gospel According to Theta

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