Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Uncertain Smile

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In my posts last week on Wednesday and Friday I was looking at possible rally options from the current 2025 lows, and was looking for a rally lasting at minimum a week or two to make right shoulders on the possible H&S patterns that may be forming on SPX, QQQ and DIA here. That is proceeding slowly but I was thinking then that at minimum this rally would ideally last a week or two, and I think the odds of that look decent. The rally will be a week old tomorrow lunchtime, this is a holiday week and while there has been much talk of further tariffs coming soon, these have not yet been implemented.

I did say as well last week though that this tariff reprieve was partial, temporary and fragile, and that remains the case. If the new tariffs being trailed by the administration on electronics, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals start hitting next week then this rally may be over, and a new leg down may begin.

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Close to a New Inflection?

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This just shows you how the model is set up: chart to the left and price/time distribution graphs to the right.

This model interprets a “trend pattern” that has been detected with an algorithm and matched against other similar patterns. No visual charting criteria involved (no head&shoulders, etc.), this is just based on MATHEMATICAL algorithms, i.e. numbers and calculations, it’s all formulas.

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The Bigger Picture on the US Dollar

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I’ve been mulling over the best way to do my review of the US dollar, US treasuries, and why the US dollar may lose its status as the world’s main reserve currency, and how that might look, and I’m splitting this into three posts this week.

The first post is this one and will look at the US dollar and where it may go from here.

The second post will look at US treasuries and where they may head from here.

The third post will be looking at the US dollar’s status as the main reserve currency, US treasuries as the main reserve asset for US dollars, why that may already be changing, and what other options might replace it over the next few years.

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A Distorted Mirror Image

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I posted the first Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart below at the end of December and there are two notes that I made on it then that are worth another look today.

The more important one of those is that I noted that any sharp decline on equity indices takes Bitcoin down with it, and we have most definitely been seeing that. On the flip side, any significant rally in equities will likely take Bitcoin up with it.

The other note I made that is worth remembering is that I noted that all of the RSI 5 buy and sell signals on this chart reached the full target (at 70 on RSI 5 for buy signals and 30 on RSI 5 for sell signals).

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