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In my last post on Monday I gave 10% odds that a deal with Iran was reached by the time that Trump’s deadline expired yesterday evening, and no deal was reached, but Trump nonetheless said that the Iran’s existing ten point point proposal to end the war was a sufficient basis to start to negotiate a deal over the next two weeks, during which time there would be a ceasefire. US equity markets have rallied and oil prices have dropped hard on that news.
Iran’s ten point plan is as follows:
(more…)I read a few days ago that John Cleese was saying that politics in the US nowadays seems like an endless Monty Python sketch, and he has a point. Before I look at the US equity markets today I just want to reflect on the bizarre nature of the news we are watching nowadays.
In the ‘special military operation’ in Iran it is now clear that there were never any negotiations with Iran since the war started, and it isn’t even clear that the US wanted any talks, as the person preparing to negotiate on the Iranian side, former Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharazi, was seriously wounded in a US/Israeli attack on his Tehran home three days ago. If he survives, his enthusiasm for future negotiations might be somewhat dampened by his wife’s death in that failed assassination attempt.
Trump declared on Saturday on Truth Social that there were only 48 hours left of the ten day pause he gave to the Iranians, and if there is no ‘deal’ in that time, which frankly seems doubtful, then he would rain down hell on the civilians of Iran. Since then he has said in another ‘Truth’ that he will now not start bombing Iran ‘back to the Stone Age’ until Tuesday (tomorrow).
(more…)In my last post on Tuesday 24th March I was talking about my hope that the ‘good news’ rally that had started on Monday might last a week or two, ideally through Easter, but noted that the lack of any actual good news might well be a problem. No real good news came through after that and the rally failed into another leg down, led by SPX and QQQ.
At the low on Friday there was strong positive divergence on the 15min charts on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM and that played out in a modest rally and low retest yesterday, and what might be a more powerful rally starting this morning.
The main reason that I was hoping for a rally that would last through Easter was that it would allow larger H&S right shoulders to develop on SPX and DIA and that didn’t happen, though I mentioned on DIA that there were two obvious possible H&S necklines and DIA broke the higher neckline but is now testing the lower neckline in the 450 area.
(more…)I discovered this one too late. It’s gorgeous, but I’m not going to touch it unless it gets back up to that neckline.
I stumbled upon this creature last night: Pony Aviation (PONY) which has an AMAZING head and shoulders top.
