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No, this isn’t another Oprah post. I’m talking about BITI, the inverse-on-BTC ETF which has hammered out what is looking like a sensational inverted H&S bottom. It isn’t quite complete, but if it crosses above $29, that suggests a measured move of about $43.
I wrote a post on 23rd April arguing that from an economic point of view the ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran was largely irrelevant as the only thing that really mattered was how long the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed, and the risk that the Bab al-Mandab Strait might also be closed.
That was almost six weeks ago, and we’ve had a lot of announcements and briefings about peace talks since then, at least some of which appear to have been real, and it looked for a while last week as though there might actually be a chance of an interim agreement, but that has foundered for two strong reasons, firstly that both sides badly wanted a deal they could present as an unambiguous victory for themselves, and secondly that Israel didn’t want any peace agreement, and weren’t willing to restrict their actions in any way to get such any agreement.
(more…)I was already short LITE from a few days ago, but I just noticed it completed a darling head and shoulders top. Nice!
I wonder if the fact this has a price/earnings ratio of over 150 will start to bother anyone.
In my post on 6th May I was looking at the resistance trendline on the SPX weekly chart and that rising trendline was being close to being hit in the 7385 to 7400 area. It was then hit and exceeded in what might have been a bearish overthrow, but I had by then also drawn in an alternate high quality resistance trendline that was hit perfectly at the high on Friday. SPX could go a bit higher, but the ideal upside trendline target has been hit. Look at the chart below and admire this beautiful rising megaphone from the 2022 low. 🙂
SPX daily chart:
Happy Nvidia Eve, everyone. So, what’s going to lift the market today? A pledge not to nuke the moon? After all, yesterday afternoon, a sudden promise to not bomb Iran on this particular Taco Tuesday was all it took to flip the entire market green.
Not to worry. I’m sure everything will be fixed in two weeks. Two. Weeks.
The /ES is actually hammering out what has a chance of being a decent reversal pattern.
