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When I began this post, I already knew it had been an amazing week but having taken the time to scrutinize the index charts more closely, I am more impressed than ever at the clarity of what is happening. The tops are clean, complete, and suggest tremendous downside potential for the balance of 2026.
Starting with the NASDAQ Composite, you can see the sensational top as well as the very clean price break between Thursday and Friday which has set up the most proximal level of resistance.
I continue to be amazed at the destructive force of the H&S top on Jack in the Box (JACK). This thing has been hammered down to its price from the PRIOR MILLINEIUM!
That’s right: a buyer in 1999 would be looking at 0% gains, ignoring the fact inflation has actually torched the value in spite of the nominal price.
It’s a good thing I slept through this.
Below, on the /ES, the market climbed for much of the night for no particular reason. Yesterday we broke out above resistance, and overnight the market bested even that insanity, egging the bulls on based on assurances from their dizzy leader that the war is “over.” It would have been a dismal sight for your dear friend Tim.
Monday and Tuesday were all about the bulls fighting back against the downtrend. It certainly helped them that Trump said repeatedly that the war was already “won” and that the price of oil was going to “drop like a rock” (or was like Iraq?)
Some people here worship the ground the man walks on. I prefer to do other things to the same ground. I am betting against this nonsense. The indexes will tell us the truth by deciding whether or not to stay beneath their respective dashed horizontal lines or not.
There is an epic tug-of-war going on right now between:
For the moment, resistance is holding across the board.
