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As a follow-up to my prior post, I wanted to talk about why I did the following on Tuesday morning:
You see, I bought NFLX Puts last Friday based on what I perceived as a topping pattern. I saw in SlopeCharts that earnings were going to be happening Tuesday afternoon, and although that sort of thing doesn’t typically scare me out of position, I took another look at the chart and had one of those what-were-you-thinking moments. Specifically………..
(more…)The shortened trading week ahead is a crucial one, because we are going to get to witness first-hand how the market reacts to what will be the high-water mark of promises, optimism, and giddiness. It will be the BEST opportunity to slather the market with hope, and frankly if the stock market isn’t at all-time highs across the board this week, then look out below, because, little by little, reality will start to creep in.
As it is now, in spite of an awful week for the bears, the steady series of lower lows and lower highs is still intact. It wouldn’t take too much to ruin that, however.
In my last post on Monday I was looking at the bull and bear scenarios on the big three coins that I cover, with particular focus on the strongest setup on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). I was also noting the similar setup on equity indices at the same inflection point, which is important as both Crypto and equity indices have tended to be significantly correlated in the past, and there is no current sign that is different here.
Since then both Crypto and equity indices have rallied strongly and are both reached yesterday the verge of a final break up that would look for retests of many of their all-time highs.
(more…)In my last post yesterday I was looking at the big inflection points in the current rally on US equity indices that could take SPX and QQQ, and perhaps also DIA and IWM, to retests of their late 2024 all time highs.
The first inflection point in this process was at the Monday’s lows and key support, and they rallied there.
The second inflection point was after the initial rallies, and they pushed through to the upside there.
The third inflection point we reached this morning, and if we are to see this move fail hard, then this is the most likely remaining place to see that. Equally, if bulls push through this, on SPX there is a clear path to the all time high retest and that would likely be made.
(more…)In my last post on Monday I was looking at the big inflection point that has formed over recent week on US equity indices, which were then testing key support. I was liking the positive divergence forming on the index futures and those turned into hourly buy signals and played out during the day delivering significant rallies.
This was encouraging for bulls as, first and foremost, the US indices didn’t break down hard into the bear scenario looking considerably lower and, secondly, that a path has been forming that could take US indices back into the high retests that I was talking about as the obvious targets for the bull scenario.
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