Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Triple-Scoop Cone

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One might assume that I’ve recently been finding the market to be annoying, vexing, and frustrating. OK, three strong adjectives………that’s a good start. I’d probably add a dozen more. All the same, it is what it is, and all I can do at times like this is manage risk responsibly. To that end, I have been dialing back my positions in light of the never-ending bid. I’m presently in 50 individual shorts at a 125% commitment level.

I thought it would be a good time to visit the Animated Price Cones (a Slope exclusive!) to try to get a little insight or perspective as to what in the holy hell is going on out there. I have shown the QQQ, IWM, and SPY. Even though the VIX has collapsed from nearly 90 down to the mid-20s, it’s still interesting what a wide swath of price possibilities is still suggested (although you’ll note in just the past few days, the sheer height of this thing has shrunk markedly). I suggest just starting at these loops a few time on each ETF to drink in what’s happening. It’s mesmerizing.

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Bounces Are NOT Bases

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About a week ago, I was thinking to myself, “Tim, ol’ boy, you’ll be able to load up on cheap stocks and ride this bull higher! It’ll be like March 2009 was dropped into your lap!” I was genuinely excited about the prospect of having as much fun with bullish charts as bearish charts.

Since that time, having surveyed literally thousands of charts, I’m here to tell ya something: there are precious few honest-to-goodness attractive bullish charts out there. One of the handful, as I’ve mentioned, is BLDP:

slopechart BLDP
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Bad News is Good Again

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It appears that my The Bottom Is In post managed to nail the bottom after all. One key moment happened after hours yesterday, after California Governor Newsom announced that the entire state would be in a state of lockdown. The ES and NQ sold off some at first (blue tint below), but within a few minutes, they regained their footing. They’ve spent all night climbing, with the NQ itself limit-up for a while (green tint).

nqlimit
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Gold Stocks: Peak Bleak?

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Peak Oil? That was an obvious and widespread promotion while it was in play and did not fool anyone who bothered to step aside from the herd that ran with it.

Peak Terror in broad stock markets? Well, that I don’t discount so readily because this is a system that was a debt-bloated accident waiting for the trigger that turned out to be COVID-19. Terrified casino patrons will pray that the Fed’s bullets are not duds because that is the only way out. That and the still-intact mass confidence in the Keynesian debt scheme that the Fed operates within.

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