Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Cash is a Position

By -

I would like to thank my fellow blogger Andrew Crowder for reminding us all that "cash is also a position." I took this advice to heart this morning when I immediately sold two huge positions – one in RUT puts and another in OIH puts, both with profits bordering on the pornographic. The S&P 500 target of 1170 I've been watching for many, many weeks was nailed, and I got out.

Thank you, Andrew; and thank you to all the other commenters; I have gleened so many wonderful ideas and suggestions from reading what you write. You are what makes this blog great!

Early Bird

By -

First up, let me say there won't be fifteen posts today. In fact, after today, get used to maybe ONE post a day (sorry!) because I'm really, really busy with work. Speaking of fifteen posts, that was a large factor in the explosive, unprecedented traffic to this blog yesterday; some surely would say this is a $SLIX reversal indicator flashing a warning!

This is what my morning office looked like at 4:30 as I drifted into it. You can't see all the charts awaiting me.

There is more than a little risk today. All the past data indicates today would be a big up day, in spite of current pre-market indications (as of now, although CPI is reported in a few minutes, and there's still an hour left for the government to do God-knows-what).

One Man’s Ceiling is Another Man’s Floor

By -

I think I'm ready for some rest. Time to head upstairs. But one last post.

This is my 15th post today.  In the entire month of June, I did 59 posts. Today we have nearly 500 comments on Slope. Plus well over 40,000 page views, which has smashed the old record to pieces. The $SLIX indicator is flashing another warning!

There's a lot of talk about the $VIX, but you want to know something I realized? Today's candlestick was white. Big deal, right? But this is quite intriguing – – in all the other big "spike" days, the candle was black; in other words, fear was maximum at the open and subsided heavily toward the close. Today was the opposite. Not only was it the opposite, but it's the only "spike" instance I see in my entire $VIX history that looks like that! Compare the candle today with what is on the extreme left of the chart, which was the mid-March BSC spike.

I usually have a ton of puts. Right now, I have a megaton. And I'd rather not have a megaton explosion under my bottom if the market flies higher. My shot-in-the-dark guess as to what Tuesday will hold is a sharp drop at the open (barring any pre-morning surprises…………) and then wild swings throughout the day, followed by a relatively tame close (not much up or down). I'm not very confident about where we're going to close, but I do feel that on a number of big indexes, we're getting near major support levels. The $NDX is one, with both fan and retracement confluence at ~1700.

The S&P is nearly the 1170 level I've spoken about many, many times. This is the 50% retracement. We're already there on the GLOBEX as I'm typing this!

I had many short positions in energy, and equity bounce prospects aside, I'm feeling pretty good about these. This H&S pattern on the $OIX is quite substantial.

I'm exhausted. And I need to be up way before the open. I'm off. Ta ta.