Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Now We Wait

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Until Sunday evening, there isn't much left to say. If a bailout plan is hammered out and agreed upon, I suppose markets will rally – – maybe even rally big. If there is stalemate, I suppose markets will be soft.

The chart of the DIA sort of says it all: (1) a decent bullish engulfing pattern today, pushing the Dow up triple digits after opening down triple digits; (2) and yet absolutely anemic volume, day after day, since September 18th's madness.

This was a good week for me; my portfolio hit a new peak at today's close. I am vulnerable, absolutely, to some kind of bullish shock on Monday (I'm saying this mainly for the benefit of those bulls that grit their teeth when they've been reading about my profits lately; some have actually complained via email). But you want to know the funny part? If a bailout is announced, I will view it at a selling opportunity, and if a bailout stumbles, I will view it as a buying opportunity. How's that for being a contrarian?

In any case, there's just no visibility right now with all the political hijinx. I'm going to enjoy the debates tonight and will be watching what happens in D.C. with great interest this weekend. I'll probably do a post Sunday night. See you then.

Going Out on a Limb

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As frequent readers know, I started the day with 70 SPY puts. I sold 20 near the open. Then I sold 25 more. However, I re-purchased 25 (and then 20 more, bringing me back up to 70) near the highs of the day, and I once again have 70 puts on SPY (I have trimmed here and there, but by and large by positions are unchanged).

I realize there is a risk of the fine public servants in D.C. annoucing on Sunday God-knows-what and the market spiking higher. I am willing to take that risk, and I am willing to ride it out. The whole world is going to be on pins and needles this weekend, and if there's no deal, what's going to start to dawn on people is that the world still hasn't ended yet, and maybe we don't need to screw with things.

Buy RIMM?

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I see a lot of folks talking about going long RIMM, getting RIMM calls, and so forth.

You might be right. And you might make hundreds of percent on the trade. And I won't. Because I'm not going to do this.

I ask myself the question, particularly when tempted by a "sure fire" thing like this………..is there a technical basis for this trade? Yes, it's fallen by over 25%, but is there firm support at this level? Looking at the chart, I don't see any. Again, this stock might move ten points higher next week. Or not. But the way I trade, I want the chart on my side, and there's nothing that tells me whether this stock is going to be down or up another ten points. It's simply falling, and that's all I see.

The GOP Digs In

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It's amazing to watch the SPY go flying up and down based on every little word the politicians are uttering today. We are in that most uncomfortable of places……….the no man's land between the upper and lower extremes. I've trimmed my SPY puts by about 2/3rds and my OIH puts by only about 10%. Otherwise, I'm holding strong. You can refer to my watch lists on the right at any time to see all my positions.