Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Ultimo Hombre

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Things are seldom what they seem, Skim milk masquerades as cream; Highlows pass as patent leathers; Jackdaws strut in peacock's feathers.

 I imagine the bulls are thrilled to pieces that the government has whored itself out to Wall Street in the grandest way possible and saddled future generations with yet more debt that can never be repaid. The bulls probably think it's party time.

They're wrong.

Even some of my most beloved readers think I have overstayed my welcome in the bear's land. But let me tell you my point of view.

If the government, to date, had the political courage to have done absolutely nothing, the bear market would already be over. We would have seen the Dow a couple of thousand points lower, there would be sweeping financial damage. And we'd be done by now. And this delicious market, which I've been enjoying so much, would have left town, and I'd be faced again with trying very hard how to be a bull.

But…………

The government has interfered, and interfered mightily. At every possible turn, they have stuck it to the taxpayers so that Henry Paulson would line the pockets of his golf buddies. And, having done so, he has handed me a gift. The gift of a bear market that is going to go on for another six years or so.

It won't be all down. And it won't always be easy. But, instead of getting all the pain out of the way, Paulson has created a situation where I'm going to get to wallow around in honey for years to come.

I think what is happening is a complete disgrace. But the perverse irony here is that the bulls are about to get smacked worse than ever, and they're not going to know what the hell to do next.

Done Deal?

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The consensus seems to be that a watered-down version of the $700 billion boondoggle is being drafted and will be sent to the House for a vote on Monday. So much for the will of the public!

The big question, of course, is what will happen to the market? Will it…….

  • Plunge at once? (I doubt it……….this is the "good news" people have been waiting for)
  • Enter a new bull market? (pfft! ha!)
  • Soar, like it did September 18th and 19th, and then resume the fall, this time without the benefit of a huge new government program looming as a great new hope? (this is what I'm thinking will happen)

Many has tsk-tsk'd me for getting into my index puts too early. They may be right. But I've still got ample cash to increase my position at better prices, and I will view any surge as yet another shorting opportunity.

There are few things one may count on in life, but on this one point I can assure you: Monday will be interesting.