I've been terribly conflicted about the near-term direction of the market. The chartist in me sees plenty of opportunities for a meaningful near-term bounce. The shell-shocked human in me, who has watched the past couple of weeks, is just waiting for some other gigantic "shock" that makes the market plunge without warning.
The rational thing to do, of course, is to pay heed to the chartist instead. Given what I'm seeing this morning, bulls have reason for some short-term optimism. Because this morning…….
- General Electric announced some pretty bad financial news (their stock is down nearly 5% pre-market)
- Durable goods orders were far weaker than expected; the lowest in seven years, I believe
- Unemployment was higher than expected
And in spite of all the above, as of this writing, both the S&P and NASDAQ (as observed by electronic pre-market trading) are up decent amounts. Indeed, when the durable orders came out, the S&P (@ES0812) halved its gain from +12 to +6, but then it quickly pushed back to +10.
The date that I keep seeing mentioned is September 29; I am avoiding getting too attached to "turning points", since I know nothing about them and shouldn't base decisions on blind faith. But I do think that, given the success of what I've seen in the past, it is worth keeping those dates in mind as potentially important.
At the moment, I'm holding strong to my bearish stance on oil and gold (both of which look a little weak going into the open), whereas I'm more skittish and indecisive about equities in general.
