This morning I took a hard look at the ES contract, and I decided that although I am confident the bottom for the year is in, we're probably going to ease back some before pushing definitely past the resisting trendline (whose touchpoints, or close calls, I've circled):
More specifically, I believe we won't get much past ~970 on the ES before we ease back to perhaps 900 or so. I have fat profits on QLD, SSO, and UWV, so I've closed those pre-opening with every intent of opening them later at better prices.
I also am not really ga-ga about holding big positions through the FOMC madness. Here, by the way, is my calculation of the measured move for the ES short-term; I've tinted in green the target zone. I've probably sold somewhat early, since it seems we could get another 30 points higher on the ES, but I'd rather be safe than sorry.
Bear in mind, it's not like I'm wildly dumping everything. I have simply taken profits on my three big positions – all of them general-purpose ETFs.
