Well, it's been a while since I've really, really gone out on a limb. So at the risk of looking like a complete fool this week (or a brilliant clairvoyant – – you payin' attention, Gawd?) here's what this poor soul is thinking:
- Those waiting for the fabled "capitulation volume" are wasting their time; it's not going to come until deep into 2009.
- The symmetric triangle, which I haven't shut up about for a long time, is going to be a fizzle. I don't think we're going to see a 2,000 point plunge; or a 1,000 point plunge; or really any kind of a plunge in the near future.
- On the contrary, I think we're going to start an explosive rally, and it's going to start this week. It might even start as soon as tomorrow (that is, Monday).
Markets do the unexpected. It seems everyone has joined the Slope party and wants to talk about how bad things are and how low things are going to go. Plus everyone is expecting the aforementioned triangle to usher in an inevitable plunge and buying opportunity.
I've looked at chart after chart after chart, and what my (relatively objective) eyes tell me is that everything is about to go up. Gold. Silver. Oil. Wheat. Kitty Litter. Equities. Everything.
Of course, the promised land – – which, God give me strength, I must have the patience to await – – is this:
If — I say if – – things go as planned (and I'll repeat this about six thousand times over the coming weeks and months – – we get a 'b' wave up and a 'c' wave down), and if things retrace to that pink rectangle – – I will own Earth, along with all the other Slopers. But we need to take things a day at a time.
But allow me to bury you in charts, all of which are screaming buys to me. If things keep plunging, I'll be the one who is screaming, but the markets will of course move where they may. (to be clear, I've still got 34 deeply profitable short positions, but my portfolios are skewed pretty bullish right now).
And take a look at this – – see the tinted circle? That's the fan line from 1932. What you are looking at now is data through the end of September. Click on the "Present" tab to see October (it's incredible………) and notice where it puts us.
As for the VIX, I had a little fun experiment this morning; I did a Fib from the former extremes (before the latest surge), and I did a couple of extensions. Check out the results!
My bevy of puts on UUP are in the red, naturally, due to the dollar's continued strength on Friday. I'm not nervous; I am highly confident the dollar is going to get its clock cleaned soon.
As long as I'm at it, some more charts — all of which say the same story.
I think you get the idea.
My concern for this blog, frankly, is that we may be in for a number of boring months and dwindling readership. Markets which push higher aren't quite as dramatic as plunges. So the "fifteen posts a day" might scale back to just a couple or, if you can remember back that far, just one. But we'll see how it goes.
So, there. I'm out on a limb. Let's see if it breaks or not. I guess I'm a steadfast contrarian. So now that everyone is absolutely certain we're going to collapse this week, Tim the Bear is saying that they're waiting for Godot.
