Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold Bear

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When an individual whom I respect has a very different point of you, I'm more inclined to doubt myself than to doubt them. I've been somewhat conflicted lately (well, I'm always conflicted – but I'm just picking one particular example) since fellow blogger Gary Savage is projecting gold will push its way much higher, to about $1400 or even more.

To be fair, Gary is saying gold is probably due for a correction soon, so we're in agreement there. When I look at a graph like this, I get way more excited about the short side than the long side.

Perhaps time will prove us both right – – that gold is indeed due for a meaningful correction, but ultimately it will move well into the four figures. I guess my time horizon is a lot shorter than a lot of other folks.

DUG in Retrospect

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I've been in too much of a funk since yesterday afternoon to do a post, but here it is, 4 in the morning, and it's pouring rain outside, so I thought I'd at least break up the multi-hundred count of comments.

There's been plenty of talk on the board about how the leveraged ETFs are best for day trading. If you want a poignant example of that, I encourge you to check out this post from last summer.

Scroll down memory lane, and click on the Present tab for some of the issues – – ANF, XEC, CRK, BTU – – it's a sight to behold. But then do the same with DUG. See anything different?

That's right – in spite of energy being hugely, hugely down since last summer, DUG (which is double-bearish on energy) is down too! I know the basic idea isn't news to anyone here, but a comparison of the charts on this post from the past really bring the point home.

Appalling

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At 3:10 EST – oh, screw it, this is my blog I'm going to use my own time zone – at 12:10 PST, I was up $60,000 for the day. When the market closed, fifty minutes later, I hadn't made a dime. Believe it or not, it isn't so much the destruction of paper profits that bugs me; it's the waste of time and emotional energy.

Trading in a market like this requires a lot of concentration, emotional energy, and dedication. If you can score five-figures in a day every now and then, it's worthwhile. If it's for a $0 payday (or, worse, a loss), it's a gigantic, disappointing waste of time.

The market doesn't owe a penny to anyone, but this kind of action disgusts me:

Now all of you know what cutesy little government musing caused this to happen – – the government plan to squander whatever wealth the nation still has and pick up the check for all the homeowners who aren't paying their mortgages anymore. So people like me – who haven't missed a payment in their life – look like idiots. And the sitcom-watching dimwits who bought at the top of the market, sucked six-figures out of their house in home equity loans so they could buy trucks and televisions, and then ignore their bills each month, leave it to the nation to pick up the tab.

Oftentimes there is a lot of handwringing about the debt being shoved onto the unborn grandchildren and great-grandchildren of our once great land. Listen, I don't lose any sleep over that. Why? Because I'm not sticking around for my progeny to suffer the penalites for such idiocy.

I am loyal to values, not a flag. The values I honor are freedom, opportunity, honesty, industry, creativity, productivity, and applied intellect. Those used to be American values, but not anymore. So if I wind up taking me and my family out of the US, it will be because I have decided the values I cherish are embodied better elsewhere.

And that, my friends, is the kind of brain drain that is only going to speed up this nation's demise. Because, look, I know I don't mean anything to the US. No one cares if I'm here or not. But what if 100,000 families like mine do the same?

And what do families "like mine" represent?

I can tell you what mine does. I created a business. I created employment. I created products. I am an aspect – – just one, for there are many – – of what America used to mean. So what happens if a country creates a circumstance for itself so that tens of thousands of people like me, and their families, get the hell out of here? I think you can reach your own conclusion.

What is happening around us is horrible, and I fear the rash decisions being made, all in the name of "helping out", are simply nails in the country's coffin. The United States is a country, not a prison. If things keep spiraling out of control like this, I'm not sticking around to get stuck with the tab. And I'm certainly not letting future Knights get stuck with it either.

Quiet Afternoon

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Well, with a half hour in the trading day left, and insanity has struck the market once more. The Dow was down 230, and now it's down "only" 130 (and who knows where it will close?) The /ES rocketed 15 points higher in the span of what seems like just moments; my Orson-Wells-sized profits are now simply William-Shatner-sized. I hope they don't disappear with the day altogether!

I'm tied up for much of the afternoon but will do a post this evening. Keep jive-talkin', everyone.