Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Dubai Boondoggle

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During the dark times of 2006-2007, one of the most hackneyed expressions to get tossed around, ostensibly from investment banking twerps, was: "These days, it's Shanghai, Mumbai, Dubai, or Good-Bye."

Idiots.

So in that smirky little phrase, they unwittingly laid out three Capitals of Despair that would get wiped out when the music stopped playing.

I was just reading this interesting article in the Times about Dubai's plunge – – what caught my eye was that people were afraid of being thrown into debtor's prison. Debtor's prison! I thought those went out of style with the chastity belt. But, in the land of the Religion of Peace, they still have such a thing. Incredible.

Why anyone would ever elect to live somewhere hot is beyond me. I think those who choose to be in, say, Phoenix or Las Vegas are simply nuts. Of course, I prefer mild weather, and plenty of fog and rain, so perhaps this is just a quirk of mine. But to choose to live in a place where it is regularly over 100 degrees seems odd to me, since it would necessitate hiding indoors all the time.

As for Dubai, in retrospect, it was all-too-obvious they were headed for a fall. Besides the aforementioned ditty, one would often hear the tired carping about how XX% of all the world's cranes were in Dubai, which I frankly never cared a whit about. I imagine Dubai will be the new Houston – – overbuilt and full of see-through buildings.

Surely at some point you've seen the "before" and "after" of the place:

….as well as the indoor skiing…..

Pride goeth before the fall. It happens every time. So the (clearly Freudian) need to build the World's Tallest, Thickest, Widest, Most Turgid building is behind us. Perhaps those remaining can survive the empty desert landscape from the top tower and drink in the view for a few years.

Retail’s Fantastic Recovery

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I saw there was chatter in bull-land about the marvelous turnaround in retail sales. Let's take a look, since those on this blog actually know how to read a chart instead of make a lot of conclusions on a single month's percentage change.

The arrow shows the sensational, explosive turnaround in retail. Take a look at a stock like SKS or ANF to see how well retailers are raking it in. For your viewing pleasure, I've tinted in prior amazing turnarounds.

Bears: the trend is your friend.

Cave Chains

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Years ago, while traveling in Mexico, I visited a cave. What alarmed me was that there were no protective barriers of any kind. In the litigious United States, there would at least be a chain-rope along the edge of the precipice, as a security blanket, if nothing else. But in Mexico, you were on your own.

It occurred to me this morning that this is probably why I like trendlines and retracement levels so much. (And, as an aside, I apologize again that I must "hide" my chart's retracement levels; 2sweeties was more than happy for me to include them in my charts, but I guess some subscribers kept whinging at him about this, so I suppress them to shut them up.) These lines are my guideposts – – and sometimes a security blanket – – for my decisions and my trading.

They've certainly been vital lately. Tuesday and today have both been dynamite. I've trimmed some of my really fat, profitable positions, including FXP and OIH (long and short, respectively), and I cut my wonderful STRA put position in half. At this point, having closed out /ES at 810, I have a fresh (but smaller – 10 contracts) short position on /ES at 821 with a stop set above 826.

As that red trendline indicates, a break beneath today's low so far of 808.25 would amp-up the bear case even more.

The Last STRA

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Finally! Finally, finally, finally!

I've been patienting holding puts on ()#$^%)(&#%^& STRA for weeks. It's kind of like AZO – – the kind of stock which seems to be defying gravity in this market.

Well, my options are up 100% today. The challenge is knowing whether I should take my profits (given that it tapped the long-term trendline) or hold out.

I think I'll sell half (with a 100% gain, I'm already in the clear) and keep the rest "just to see".

Congrats to fellow STRA bears.