The Ideal Scenario

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In case God is checking in on this blog and would like to know a really nice way to play things out on the S&P, I think it would go something like this.

  1. Have the big-honkin' announcement come out regarding the "stimulus" package;
  2. After an initial 9/19-style rally (tinted below), have the market completely lose its marbles and plunge to 700;
  3. Bang around 700 for a while as we Slopers sell our puts and cover our shorts;
  4. Have it dawn on the market that "the plan might work after all" and start a meaningful, multi-month rally;
  5. Give us the shorting opportunity of a lifetime sometime later this year

As it is now, the only really formidable resistance is at about 940.

Given how cruel and devious this market has been all of 2009, I doubt it's going to make it that easy on any of us. So we continue to – – groan – – take it one single day at a time, with tomorrow's pre-opening jobs report being the big kahuna.