Take a look at this post from early last month, and you will see I went ga-ga bullish on a bunch of ETFs. Click on the Original/Present tabs to see what they've done since. In particular take note of the Taiwan ETF, EWT, and its substantial rise. I think this still has a good future, but I think it's a good short-term bearish play with a stop at 9.36.

I am struck by the loss of momentum in the market. What happened from March 9 to about March 20 was simply explosive. But look at two things: (a) the waning strength of the rise, almost like an engine winding down; (b) the broadening range, giving more opportunity for downside.

I entered a short position on the /ES (10 contracts at 840) with a stop at above 844.

OK, serious, serious catch-up time on going through positions, looking for new opportunities, and so forth.

My first analysis was of my 34 "lottery" picks in my IRA, which are now my 25 picks, since I sold off 9 I felt had fulfilled their potential. In some cases, the bear in me really wanted to sell, but I keep telling myself that as long as there is no technical basis for the sale, I simply must tighten up the stop and hang on. Here's an example.

I am up nearly 150% on this position, and seeing it push to, say, 14, is very hard for someone with my tendencies. But I'm trying to fight those tendencies (which basically make it hard to believe a stock can simply keep punching its way higher), since they are responsible for me missing so many bullish moves in my earlier years as a trader-in-training.

I don't have strong feelings one way or the other about stocks in general for today. The /ES has been stuck between about 834 and 844 for a long, long, time, so I'm going to let that battle wage and show me some direction. Until then, I'm doing the equivalent of cleaning out the garage by reviewing all my positions.

OK, sorry to start the day with such a tallllllll chart, but I've got to make this point.

Bank of America has been of great interest to me. When bank stocks were really in the dumper, I pointed out Bank of America would probably fight its way to the underside of its 23.6% Fibonacci retracement line. BAC had plunged as low as $2.52 on February 20 of this year, which meant that a 300% gain could have been in store (and it was, plus some more).

The Fibonacci retracements were drawn from two price extremes – – one on October 20, 1987 (the lows of the '87 crash) and the other on October 11, 2007, almost twenty years later to the day.

The 23.6% retracement of this huge span was $11.62, as I mentioned. With my "premature anticipation" I started shorting at $10.50, and shame on me for not being more patient (and double-shame on me for not buying when it was cheap!) But that's water under the bridge, isn't it?

Anyway, here's the payoff:

The high yesterday? $11.58. Four pennies less than the retracement level, and based on a drawn object from over 21 years ago! Wow! Anyway, I'm short B of A (I shorted more yesterday, at more sensible levels).

Ahhhh, my Aeron chair. My 30 inch monitor. My three displays. I am at peace again.

Much of my vacation was spent reading technical analysis books. I'm a die-hard, I admit it. Part of the reason is that I have my final CMT test on the 25th, and I've got to really start hitting the books. I went through Prechter's classic Elliott Wave book cover to cover, and I read Constance Brown's book from 1998 (from which I derived only one good thing – – – a newfound interest in Gann, about which I know virtually nothing, but I intend to learn as much as I can muster).

I've been doing a deep-dive on Fibonacci, and there are all kinds of things I want to add to ProphetCharts based on my reading. I'm a pretty crummy student, but I'm really trying to learn as much as I can and concentrate on the material, since sometimes it is pretty dense.

I'd love to stay up all night looking at charts, but after a day full of traveling, I think I'm spent.