Not to keep harping on XLU, but this is the only ETF I'm comfortable having a large short position in right now. It moves slowly, has a nice, clean stop, and is poised for a handsome breakdown. Currently I am short 10,000 XLU.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Sir Timid
I've heard the old saying "There are old traders; there are bold traders; but there are no old, bold traders."
I'm inclined to agree. Being an aggressive bear in a market like this is a one-way ticket to the poorhouse. I have become increasingly conservative as this market has continued to explode higher. I'm a big believer in taking losses early. That has saved my skin.
The quantity of all my positions on all my portfolios, both personal and professional, numbers a mere 55 – which is almost flat for someone like me. The kind of market I'd like to find myself in is one where I've got hundreds of small positions. But there's no way on earth I'm going to get aggressive in a market like this.
Earnings announcements this week continue to be loaded with risk. When's the last time GOOG disappointed anyone? With all the lifts lately, isn't it reasonable to expect a huge double-digit price pop on GOOG as well?
I remain in a highly defensive mode. Capital preservation is job one.
Worth Noting
One of my favorite Slopers is VirginiaJim. His posts are thoughtful, complete, and well-documented.
This morning he posted an extensive comment about his projections using the Spiral Calender (which I hope to incorporate into ProphetCharts in the months ahead). Here is the graph he put up illustrating the similarities between 1929, 1987, and the present market.
He points to October 16th – this upcoming Friday – as an important turning point. I'm sure we'll all be watching that date with interest!
GLD Ready for a Breather?
It was hard not to notice before the opening bell that even though the /ES was up 15 points and the /NQ was up 25 points, gold was actually……………down.
These days, that's just plain weird, because these markets tend to move in lockstep. I've shorted 2500 GLD at a price of 104.31 and a stop at 105 since I think this is due for at least a breather. Take note also of the price gap I've tinted.
The Surge
It looks like October is just a repeat of last September. That is:
- An encouraging dip down;
- A retracement;
- A bigger dip down;
- Then a huge surge upward, pushing to new highs
Here's September on the /ES, through the peak on the 23rd:
and here's October which, if it follow's September's model, will keep flying until 1093 or so:
