The last time the market began a serious downward turn was January 19th (the downward turn was terminated, as I've cited ad nausem, on February 5th). Prior to that turn, the EUR/USD was shaping up for a meaningful bounce higher. Instead, what looked like a nice saucer formation was punctured to the downside. I've highlighted January 19th below.
Given the state of this market, I try not to offer the bearish side of me much in the way of optimism, but I will point out that we're witnessing a similar move right now, thanks to Portugal's downgrade.
I'm making a particular point of this for one key reason – – – I've been frustrated at how disconnected the US dollar's strength has been from equities (e.g. it only seems to work to favor the bulls, and never the bears). But the fact is that, during the last significant EUR tumble, equities quickly "caught up." It'll be interesting to see what happens this time, since we could be experiencing another January 19th now, two months later.
