Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Moly Crunch (by BKudla)

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In five business days, the insiders for MolyCorp are allowed to sell their shares to the public, and having a company with no near term earnings prospects, a pricing model controlled by your competitors, selling for over 6 times book value, and a stock that is 300% of the IPO price, if you were an insider hedge fund, or executive, would you sell?

Now that the fever has broken on this stock, I am expecting at least a move back to the bottom of the channel.  I am short via Feb 55 puts, and I am also short REE Feb 16 puts.  I acquired and completed my purchases last week.  Why REE?  Well when folks start bailing out of MolyCorp, they are going to bail out of the ETF for Rare Earths, and REE will fall in simpatico.

Enjoy, and join me on the wild side  🙂

Moly_2011-01-11_1928 

www.arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com

Gold’s Vulnerability

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At the end of the day yesterday, my biggest long was FXE (the Euro/USD) and my biggest short was GLD (errr – if I have to tell you – gold). This may seem like a pair of trades guaranteed to cancel each other out, but so far this isn't the case.

The Euro zoomed higher this morning, thanks, I suppose, to the more-or-less successful sale of Portugal bonds. Precious metals and the Euro are typically joined at the hip, but instead of zooming higher alongside FXE, my GLD short slipped lower. As I am typing this, the EUR/USD is up 0.4% and GLD is down 0.24%. Quite a contrast!

My stop-loss on GLD is 135.17, and a break below 132.86 would, I think, really start pushing things downward. This is an intraday chart:

0112-gld

Has EURUSD bottomed? (by Springheel Jack)

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I'm seeing bullish breaks everywhere this morning, and I'm going to break my usual limit of five charts and post a sixth today. I was expressing serious doubts about the very short term bear case yesterday morning and my doubts were well founded. On ES an IHS has formed and has started to play out. The target is 1290, which is also my target for upper trendline of the big rising wedge on the daily chart:

The falling wedge on copper that I posted yesterday morning has broken up, and has already progressed too far for it to become a declining channel. The target is the previous high just below 450:

I mentioned yesterday that the falling wedge on oil had already broken up, and it is now most of the way to the target which is also the previous high just over 92.50:

What's really alarming me this morning though is what I'm seeing on forex. I've posted the falling wedge on GBPUSD in recent days, and that too has broken up. The target is the previous high at 1.63, though if it is evolving into a declining channel the target would be 1.59:

Many thanks to toad37 for pointing out the possible IHS forming on EURUSD yesterday morning. Since then a second alternative IHS has formed and both have broken up. The targets are 1.312 and 1.317 respectively and I've marked them both on the chart:

This is a bad place for a significant EURUSD low. I mentioned my analyst friend predicting an imminent major low for EURUSD in the 1.29 area the other day, and he could be right. Looking at the EURUSD daily chart I have a possible rising channel from the summer low, and very clear positive divergence on the daily RSI. If EURUSD has bottomed any looming equities correction is going to be fighting against a declining USD, which will be heavy going:

110112_EURUSD_Daily_Possible_Rising_Channel