Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Looking Interesting (by Springheel Jack)

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I've been away for a few days and on my return things are starting to look a bit more interesting on the bear side. I'm not really expecting to see a significant top before February, but there are some serious signs of weakness appearing now and we could top earlier. The key thing on SPX short term is to see whether the rising channel for the last month can be broken. That's best seen on the SPX 15min chart and I'm expecting to see at least a hit of the lower channel trendline today:

The spike in silver last week left me feeling bullish on equities short term then so it's very interesting to see that silver is now showing real signs of weakness.  Silver tested the support trendline from $18 yesterday and I think that there is a very real chance that it will break. Silver has hit the obvious long term resistance trendline now and a break of shorter term support here should signal a serious correction. Here's the one year view:

I was very disappointed to see copper break up through long term resistance last week but shorter term resistance slightly above has held and copper may well also have made a significant interim top:

I posted the Vix weekly chart a couple of times in December to show the key support trendline being hit. Vix has bounced a bit since then and I'm not expecting to see that support trendline broken anytime soon:

I also posted the TLT falling wedge in December. As I expected, the upper trendline of the wedge was hit and we've seen a nice reversal from there. I'm in two minds about where TLT goes from here though. A move to the lower trendline of the wedge would require a major break of long term resistance on bond yields, which would in my view confirm that the thirty year bull market in bonds has finished. I'd like to see that but it may well be that the TLT falling wedge will break instead, which would then be a decent long entry if that happens:

I'm expecting to see a topping process start in earnest soon and it looks as though it may well have started already. I'm leaning short today and I think we could see significant further weakness this week. Regardless I'm not now expecting to see a lot more upside on equities before the next major interim top is made.

The Ideal Scenario

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The symbol GDX (the miners) is one I follow with probably more interest than any other. It rivals even the /ES for importance, since – for whatever reason – it seems to be the most sensitive indicator with respect to my portfolio (which, ironically, has absolutely nothing at all to do with precious metals or miners).

The GDX broke an extremely important trendline today. I am hoping (for what that's worth – – which is zilch) that the GDX does something along these lines:

0104-GDX

That is, a combination of a gap fill and retracement to the broken trendline, and then All Hell Breaking Loose.

At the moment, I have 99 shorts (all small) and 1 long (kind of big – GLD). I do not intend to keep GLD for long. If something like the above happens, I'll dump it once GDX gets anywhere above $60.

Until then, remember ……..Respect………Forgiveness…………Patience…….Comraderie. We all need that in a big dose right now. Please.

Triple Peak Pressuring GLD (by TheTechTrader)

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The big picture that is evolving in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) shows that yesterday's high at 139.00 represented the third failed attempt to hurdle and sustain above 139.00 during the past eight weeks. Today's sharp gap-down open and downside follow-through (so far) leaves behind a triple peak that is putting increasing pressure on the Nov-Jan support line, which cuts across the price axis today at 134.75.

Let's notice that the rising 50-day moving average also is in the vicinity of the near-term support line, at 134.58, which adds more significance to a violation of the 134.75/50 support area.

If 134.75/50 is violated and sustained, given the pressure exerted by the triple peak, it could trigger an avalanche of selling pressure that drives the GLD towards 130.00-129.80 quickly.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.