Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Dealers Decline Bernanke Twist Invitation

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Second item down, check it out from Bloomberg.

http://www.biiwii.com/analysis.htm

In this week's letter we noted a situation (via Sentimentrader.com) in Treasury bonds where Wall Street strategists were bullish T bonds and bearish the stock market to epic proportions.  Now, here comes a Bloomberg article (the Sentimentrader data was compiled with Bloomberg as the source) showing Wall Street dealers in direct opposition to the Fed and its desire to buy long dated Treasuries.

NFTRH is on a caution stance for the short term and reading things like this makes me all the more firm in that stance.  Not because I want to go against what could be a contrarian setup, but because things are very uncertain at the moment and it says here that we should always manage risk first, speculate second.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com

Spanish Holiday (by Springheel Jack)

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I'm on holiday in Spain for a few days and the place I'm staying is just beautiful. The scenery is lovely, the hotel is nice, the food is great, and the internet access is terrible. I can get internet access in only two places here, in the main bar and in hotel reception, and it's as though I have stepped back into the 1990s. I'm writing this from the bar this morning but, realistically my ability to keep up with the markets from here is going to be very limited and, this will therefore be the last daily post until I'm back at home on Friday 20th July. I'll be checking in from time to time and will post any interesting charts on twitter at @shjackcharts. I'll also do my MarketShadows weekend post on Saturday and will tweet that when I've posted it. 

The SPX low on Friday was a very nice technical low and I would generally expect that to be the short term swing low. Here's the chart I posted on twitter on Friday afternoon showing the very nice W bottom that formed on positive RSI divergence on the SPX 15min chart:

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Doesn’t Anyone Do Math Anymore?

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While our mind is preoccupied with Europe, nobody seems to remember the mess that USA is in. At least Europe is trying to get its shit together. They have much less debt to GDP compared to US of A. Just look at your backyard swamp and you will see the dragon getting stronger.

 US spend about $ 3.8 Trillion in a year and takes in approx. $ 2.15 trillion in various shapes and forms. That leaves a gaping hole of $ 1.65 trillion a year. 

And the official debt is about $ 16 trillion. In that official debt, we have not, I repeat not, included any unfunded liability for pensions to Government employees, Medicaid and Medicare and Social Security. The estimates of that unfunded liability vary from $ 66 trillion to $ 122.1 Trillion. For e.g. Uncle Sam has promised about $ 700,000 in pension and health benefits to its retired civil servants and so far the only source of that fund is IOU. Now add another $ 17 trillion to that coming from Obamacare. Before we start throwing Millions and Billions and Trillions, do we even know how much they represent? OK. Here we go:

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Why Your First Words Matter – Part Two (by Mark St.Cyr)

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Public Relations. Implicit in that term are two relationships not just one. The public’s relationship to you, and your relationship to the public. Although the meanings are joined at the hip that doesn’t mean one of them can’t be the antithesis of the other simultaneously. Nor does it mean that if you do X here…Y will result there. It’s not a zero sum game. They’re not locked in any correlated fashion. There can also be exponential adverse or favorable reactions to each other irregardless of making any sense.

That’s why what you say, when you say, and how you say it the first time you look into a camera, write an op-ed, or even argue with your spouse matters. Only seizing the moral high ground immediately will help protect you when the pikes and torches are being gathered. It might not be enough, but it’s the only salvo that has the best chance of providing any salvation. Whether it’s for the public itself, or your own dignity, knowing what you said was truth in the end might be all you’ll have.

You must to be able to look yourself in the mirror first warts and all and say, “I’m telling the truth” regardless if anyone believes you. If not, no matter how much make up one puts on eventually the truth will see daylight. Or worse you’ll be grilled by so many, for so long, no amount of special effects will be of help. Metaphorically speaking customers leaving you never to return is really not that different from an angry mob picketing your doors. Both produce the same results.

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