Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Short Term Follow Up from Tues Channel Post

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We printed a doji yesterday with a lower high and lower low. We did see a bounce off the R1 1405 area I mentioned yesterday.

My guess is today the Bulls will try to run it back up to the top of the channel early. My inclination is to short that as I don't think they have the firepower to break through R2 at 1431. I also see MACD rolling over as well as declining RSI

A stop will be placed 1433 in case I am wrong

Ms and Ws (by Springheel Jack)

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There were a couple of developments yesterday that could be very important game-changers. The first from the Fed minutes is serious talk of implementing QE3 if the US economy continues to weaken, which seems likely. QE1 and QE2 both had a big impact on the equity and other markets and there's no reason to think that QE3 wouldn't have a big impact too. 

The second was that the German representative on the ECB came out against the Bundesbank in favor of a European QE program that would buy up the bonds of troubled sovereigns as soon as the yields reached certain trigger thresholds. 

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Octopus – the Awesome, Mind-Boggling Tale of Sam Israel

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I just finished reading Octopus by Guy Lawson, and it's one of those rare books that fit the "I Couldn't Put It Down" category, much like Den of Thieves, published in 1992. It is the tale of Sam Israel, whom you may remember in 2006 was on the lam from his failed hedge fund/Ponzi scheme. He faked his suicide, was captured, and is now hanging out for the next couple of decades (with none other than Bernie Madoff) in a state prison named, of all things, Valhalla.

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What’s Really Changed?

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What's really changed since Standard & Poor's downgraded
the U.S. credit rating on August 5, 2011?

One year has passed, and the
SPX has gone from a low of 1074.77 on October 4, 2011 to a high
of 1426.68 yesterday (Tuesday), as shown on the Daily chart below. A double top
has formed at major resistance.

The credit rating has not been upgraded. The Fed also downgraded the economic
outlook at their meeting on August 9, 2011, as mentioned in my post of August 9th. The Fed remains committed to holding
long term interest rates low for the foreseeable future. Europe's economic
condition has weakened. The global economies have slowed. And, finally, the U.S. National Debt
continues to rise (unabated) to all-time highs each second. The Fiscal Cliff
looms.
Who is convinced that economic and fiscal conditions have improved since then?
The only ones, so far, have been the buyers above the yellow arrows. No doubt
they will begin to take profits at current levels and re-think their positions
after the next FOMC meeting in September. A drop and hold below June's lows of
this year would confirm that their sentiment has changed.