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As many decades as I've been charting, I can never cease to be amazed at some of the events that can happen with simple embellishments. I came into the day short Cabella (symbol CAB), and it started plunging at the opening bell. It tagged its supporting trendline perfectly – virtually to the penny – and I'm out of the position at a nice profit (I'd love to say I closed at the trendline, but I covered earlier this morning, to my chagrin). All the same, it's a dazzling example.
SPX rode the daily lower bollinger band down for a second day yesterday. This can last a while but while it does moves downwards are likely to be incremental rather than strong pushes down. The obvious next target in the 1397 SPX area has not yet been reached:
So far, so good; the three days this week have each produced nice profits, although the trauma of the past four years keeps me somewhat on the defensive (although I haven't touched a long position in quite some time now). The big risk this week was the FOMC, and they are out of our hair until December 12th (huzzah!), so now all we've got to worry about is AAPL.
It's quite simple, really. If AAPL blows away estimates and somehow creates a zooming stock price, that'll probably do some damage to the bear case; on the other hand, if AAPL disappoints like GOOG did last week, all holy hell is going to break lose.
Starting with crude oil, which has been a favorite of mine since it was in the mid-90s, it has painted out a terrific pattern that has it poised for a drop into the upper 70s.
Originally published on TheTechTrader.com.
