A generally-downtrending market has basically two phases: (1) the “ride out the storm”, in which a countertrend bounce is happening; (2) the “enjoy the ride down”, in which there’s a general sell-off. Tuesday of this week was a good example of type (2), and it was one of my best days of the year. Today is definitely the type (1) variety. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Crude Oil Cycle Review
If crude oil has a dominant cycle, then does this mean world conflict has a cycle? Crude oil cycle watches new an upswing in 2013 was coming soon. We all know the correlation with $100 oil and instant recession that follows in the USA. Well what happens when you have $120 oil and 10 year interest rates higher by 30% at say 3.25%. Consumer squeeze coming. Get the feeling that he commodity bull run is about to start again. Metals, energy and grains have been hitting higher prices recently. This of course means the US Federal Reserve can never stop printing as the US has large bills to pay. (more…)
Fool Me Twice?
What’s going on right this second is precisely what happened exactly a week ago: the market is playing the “Mideast War, Tapering, Seventeen Trillion in Debt and Looming Debt Ceiling Really Doesn’t Matter Compared to Spiffy Electric Cars” game. (Milton Bradley tried to make a board version of the same entertainment, but the name wouldn’t fit on the box). I’m not buying it. On the contrary, I’m selling it. Watch the gap on the IWM closely. (more…)
Inflection Point Test
A key target I have been watching on this retracement has been rising support on SPX from 1343. That was tested yesterday, or very close at least, along with the 23.6% fib retracement of the move up since 1343. On my more bullish scenarios for the next year that is a key level below which they are eliminated, and a test of the 1560 low and the 200 DMA (currently at 1559) becomes likely. We have therefore made a possible retracement low, and if the last breakaway gap at 1652-7 should be filled then that would become a probable retracement low in my view. Until that happens however the bears still own this tape and what we are looking at from yesterday’s low is an oversold bounce. SPX daily chart: (more…)
