SPX broke up from the rising support trendline from 1343 yesterday and the next targets are the middle bollinger band, currently at 1661, and the 50 DMA, currently at 1663. I think this move is most likely a counter-trend rally and I don’t think that the rally high is in yet. SPX daily chart:
On the updated version of my SPX 60min chart that I posted on Sunday, I’m expecting a hit of declining resistance in the 1665-8 SPX area tomorrow and probably reversal there. SPX 60min chart:
For today I’m initially leaning short. A rising channel has developed from the low on Friday and channel resistance has been hit just under the weekly R1 pivot at 1657, on strongly negative 60min RSI divergence, and with what appears to be an H&S with a target in the 1643.50 area on a break below 1650 mostly formed. Rising channel support is currently in the 1636 area. ES 60min chart:
Dow is on the way to the obvious targets at the 15050 possible IHS neckline and declining (possibly channel) resistance in the 15130-50 area. INDU 60min chart:
COMPQ is on the way back either to falling megaphone resistance in the 3680 area, or a test of the current all time highs in the 3694 area. COMPQ 60min:
On other markets I’ve been watching a possible IHS form on CL. I posted this on twitter yesterday. Since then CL has made a short term low in the ideal right shoulder low area and has rallied halfway back to the pattern neckline. CL has made higher highs and lows for the past month and with Syria in the background may continue doing that for a while. This possible IHS targets new highs. CL 60min chart:
EURUSD has been rallying since I was pointing out the positive RSI divergence yesterday morning. the double-top target in the 1.295 area may still be in play, but isn’t worth trading until the newly established rising channel breaks down. EURUSD 60min chart:
I was putting the case yesterday for strong reversals back down on silver and GDX. GC is also retracing, but within a rising channel from the lows this year. As long as rising channel support holds, currently in the 1340 area, then GC may go higher after this retracement. GC daily chart:
For today I’m expecting a reversal within the current rising channel on ES into the 1636-42 range. That would most likely be a good long entry area for the next, and most likely last, push up into the 1660s target area.
