I’ve been leaning towards a retest of the highs in recent days, and the main reason for that is the falling megaphone from the all time high which broke up slightly at the high last week. Since then though SPX has lost the support at the 50 day MA & EMA, and then the 50 hour MA, and followed up by losing support at the 5 DMA yesterday. From here there are two obvious paths forward:

On the bull scenario a double bottom is forming that would target 2103.5 on a break over 2088. Once that played out bulls could have another try at the daily middle band to try and open up a possible retest of the high which would be supported by the falling megaphone that would then be targeting a retest of the all time high.

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I have an announcement today as I set up a new site at the weekend to cover my swing trading collaboration with fellow chartist Stan Nabozny. The site is at www.theartofchart.net, and I christened it yesterday with a post on bonds. I will be posting most of my, and our, work outside equity indices there in future.

Bulls had a bad day on Friday and managed to lose support at the 50 day MA and EMA and at the 50 hour MA. They did however managed to hold on to the 5 day MA on a closing basis, and are still in with a shot at a retest of the highs at the moment, though the odds have worsened considerably. Support is at the 5 DMA at 2093.5 (closing basis) and rising wedge turned channel support in the 2073/4 area. Resistance is at the 50 hour MA at 2096, the 50 DEMA at 2100, and the 50 DMA at 2103. If bulls can break back above those (closing basis) then they can have another run at the daily middle band at 2110.50. If they can manage that then a retest of the all time high opens up. If they can’t then 2039 is the next obvious support. SPX daily chart:

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