SPX made a break with impressive conviction back over the daily middle band yesterday, so the retest scenario I first started talking about a month or so ago, before the current high, should be on. I was talking about what I expect for the summer in more detail in my post on 26th May and you can see that here to refresh your memory. Nothing material has changed in my view from when I wrote that post.
That being the case I am now looking for a retest of the high, ideally today, and if that test is today I have an ideal target zone for the likely 2015 high in the 2132-42 range. I have explained the merits of the three targets within this range on the chart below. SPX daily chart:
As I mentioned on the chart above the weekly upper band is at 2141 today along with short term channel resistance. That is my highest target area and the one I would prefer to see hit today, though that doesn’t make it the most likely target of course, which is probably 2138. SPX weekly chart:
I was talking about a possible reversal back up on DX yesterday morning and that is coming along nicely. Unless we see a break back under 94 then I’m looking for 95.6 next, and I have a possible setup forming that might then take DX back to 98. We shall see. DX 60min chart:
I would like to see an AM low that is bought very hard today for the last run to retest the highs and hopefully make the second high of a double top there. That would ideally be today as there is strong form for making significant highs near quarterly witching, and equally strong form for the two weeks after June witching to be bearish. My ideal end to June would be to make the 2015 high in my target zone today, and then fail hard next week.