Stan and I, for unrelated reasons, have both been having very intense weeks offline this week. I’ve had a total of about 12 hours sleep since I woke up on Monday morning, and am feeling a little ragged. Just for a change this morning then, and so I can get this post up before the open today, I’m going to use a couple of charts that I posted for the main chart package subscribers at theartofchart.net last night.
The ES chart that I posted last night showed a falling megaphone that was close to a resistance test, but with the observation that there was a fixed double bottom target at 1920 that I would expect to be hit, so in that case megaphone resistance would have to break. That megaphone is now broken and ES has made the double bottom target. ES 60min chart (last night):
On the NQ 60min chart I posted last night, I was looking at another falling megaphone there, and a double bottom with alternate targets where the less ambitious target was close to the likely test of megaphone resistance. NQ 60min chart (last night):
Here is how NQ looked when I screencapped it earlier this morning, with a hit and perfect reversal at megaphone resistance. My comment in the Princeton Trader trading room when I logged on this morning and saw the NQ chart was ‘shjack_charts (06:46:23 AM): Leave a runner on if you’re short. The high today may well be the one made in globex’. That’s New York time obviously. Since then the rising channel from Tuesday’s low has broken down, and the odds are decent that the high for today has been made overnight. NQ 60min chart:
If that NQ megaphone resistance breaks today, and depending on the correlation today with ES/SPX, possibly if it doesn’t, then there is a decent case for seeing a test of the SPX daily middle band at 1945/6, as there is a cluster of significant resistance levels there that makes it both an attractive target, and likely strong resistance. We may well not see that however. The main chart service is updated on Wednesdays and Sundays and as all my charts are very handmade with written notes, doing 35-40 charts after the close on Wednesdays is one reason why I’m not sleeping as much as I was. That’s getting easier though as I get all the templates set up as I would like. I do a quick review of SPX, NDX, RUT, ES, NQ, USD, oil and gold after the close every night and will now be starting to post the interesting ones within three hours of the close on the daily video page as bonus charts. This is something I’ve been working up to, but after almost no-one saw the chart below that I prepared after Tuesday’s close, and that was a real shame given what happened over the following 24 hours, I’ve decided to start that from today. SPX 15min chart (from Tuesday night):
Today may well be very interesting, and may well be an inverted V day, with a high that gets sold very hard into a retest of Tuesday’s lows by early next week, NFP permitting of course. If that wasn’t the case I’d be going back to bed after posting this, though in practical terms I may end up spending much of today snoozing in front of my screen. My chair is very comfortable and if the tape gets boring for half an hour or more today, I may sleep through what comes after. 🙂