Yesterday made a lot of progress towards my channel support target in the 1975 SPX area, but it would be rare to see a move straight there unless that support was going to break. The move up from the low yesterday looks like a B wave bounce and the obvious targets are the 38.2% fib retrace in the 2025 area and the 50% fib retrace in the 2035 area. I wouldn’t expect much higher as I’m expecting to see the open breakaway gap into 2043.94 respected on this move. SPX 60min chart:
On ES this looks like an ABC with C in progress forming what should be a bear flag. The first target on a break down from this flag would be a retest of yesterday’s low, The full flag target on a break below the first target would currently be in the 1920 area, but I don’t think the rally has topped out, and that target is calculated on the rally high level. If we were to see a rally high in the 2027 ES area, then the full flag target would be in the 1932 area, still somewhat low for my channel support test at the moment. For the flag target to be at my channel support this rally would need to top out in the 2060 area, which is a lot higher than I am expecting, so we’ll see. ES 60min chart:
Looking for an AM low today above the ES globex low at 1992, and then another rally leg up with likely fail area if reached in the 2025-9 range. The rally high will set the main declining resistance trendline for this move and may give me the decline pattern, which I’ll post on twitter once I think the rally high is made. My twitter handle is shjackcharts for any of you not already following me there.
