Some days things happen so fast after the open that by the time I get my post up much of the post is already out of date. This is one of those days. On the charts below I outlined a possible bull scenario and assigned it a possibly overgenerous 25% probability weighting. That is a lot lower now as the overnight rally failed hard at the ES weekly pivot at 1909, which was the key support level I gave on ES yesterday morning.
On the plus side I shorted the obvious resistance at 1909 ES and my runner from that trade is currently +33 or so, so I’ll keep my grumbling to a minimum.
On the bear scenario the rising wedge rally from the 1812 low broke down yesterday after an ideal 50% fib retracement of the falling megaphone from 2081, and as that rising wedge was a bear flag on the bigger picture. the alternate targets for the bear flag are either a retest of the 1812 January low, or the full flag target in the 1690 area. The high this morning was a perfect retest and hard fail at broken rising wedge / flag support. SPX 60min chart:
