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Polaris Industries (PII), which apparently makes snowmobiles and whatnot, is one of my many shorts, and I’ve been waiting for it to finally start slipping. Even on a day like today, when everything is green, it’s down 3%, and it finally seems to be heading in the right direction. Crude oil is continuing to provide a mega-lift to the markets, and we’ll see what happens with the Fed Minutes, which is slated to come out about ten minutes after I publish this post.
Today’s big reversal to the upside in stocks across the board can be explained with three letters: O, I, and L. As I’m typing this, crude is up over 5%. Of course, market pundits love oil, because they use it to explain equity strength irrespective of direction. If oil is up, then that shows the economy is strengthening. If oil is down, that’s great, because it’s like a tax cut for everyone. Sheesh.
Anyway, one of the few domains where I’ve been steadfastly bullish is, of all things, the Japanese Yen. That’s continuing to go well, although it’s too bad the collapse of the USD/JPY hasn’t been reflected in stocks as well.
The big news yesterday was that daily RSI 5 sell signals fixed on both SPX and NDX and looking at the overnight action I’m giving 70% odds here that a significant high has now been made. That could be a rally high before a full retracement of the move up from the February low, or it may just be a fib retracement of the rising wedge before another move up. We’ll see. The fib retrace targets are listed on the chart below. SPX daily chart:
Well, I’m delighted to see the double-digit lift on the ES last night has been smacked back down to naught. Keep an eye on 2035, which is the next support level we bears need to take out on the ES in order for our recovery to proceed to its next step.
The oil inventory report comes out at 7:30 a.m. PST, and I’d say 37.52 is the resistance level on the @CLK16 contract. Finally, there’s the Fed minutes at 11:00 a.m. PST, where they report whatever the old biddy wheezed out at the last meeting. BFD.
This post was intended to show a bunch of index charts and divide them into “solid” (those with solidly bearish patterns, in spite of the absolutely ludicrous and brain-dead rally from February 11 through April 1) and “shaky’ patterns. It turns out that I’ve only got one ‘shaky” chart to offer, which is the Dow 30, since it violated its trendline and has been monkeying around that level for about a week now.
