All of SPX, NDX and RUT formed tight falling wedges from the pre-Brexit highs and all of them broke up yesterday before the close. I called the long on the member only twitter feed at theartofchart.net and that was a very nice rally into the open today. So what now?
Our main scenario is looking for a rally into, and fail at, the 2020-30 area. The current HOD is nicely in this area and we are looking for a hard fail here into a lower low below yesterday’s low. If seen that would be supportive of a possible break below the 50% fib retrace target in the 1965 area towards the 61.8% fib retrace target in the 1930 area. If we see a sustained break above 2030, then that will open up a possible retest of broken double top support at 2050 and 5dma resistance currently in the same area. SPX 60min chart:
On ES I have resistance in the 2015 to 2025 range. ES Sep 60min chart:
I don’t think this retracement low is in yet and ideally we see an AM high here that fails in the right area into lower lows. There is a much better chance of a more significant low at that lower low into at least a larger rally. This tape remains very whippy so if this isn’t your kind of tape then there’s no shame in sitting this out.
Stan and I are doing our monthly public Chart Chat at theartofchart.net this Sunday July 3rd and will be looking at all the usual 30 or so trading instruments including SPX, ES, NDX, NQ, RUT, TF, DX, CL, GC, ZB, NG, SB, EURUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, JPYUSD and numerous others. We’ll also be taking questions. This webinar is free to all and if you have any interest in world class TA, or where the prices of tradeable instruments may be headed, then you should attend. You can sign up for that on this page here.
