Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Probability Spectra

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This is an important week on equities with likely highs coming on SPX, NDX & maybe RUT too. This high will likely last several months. There are couple of questions that I am still getting regularly that I’d like to address at the start of this week.

How certain are we (Stan & I) that our scenario will deliver here? We are not certain at all, because there is precious little certainty in the universe and none at all in the markets. We have a high level of confidence, within the obvious constraint of the reality that we are forecasting with math rather than magic. Our working assumption is that certainty in market forecasting is less common than unicorns, and that analysts offering certainty are either charlatans or delusional. On planet Earth everything is on a spectrum of possibilities.

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The Loss of Verve

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For a person who has almost zero interest in sports, I sure have been lucky lately. I sorta-kinda watched the World Series last October, just for the final portion, and it turned out to be one of the most amazing games of all time. And then yesterday we sorta-kinda had the Super Bowl on, and we all know how that went. (Just to give you an idea of how intently we were watching, I walked into the room and asked my family: “Has the game started yet?” and none of them had any idea; every single person was on their respective laptop).

Anyway, the Patriots’ victory last night just goes to show, no matter how down you may be, there’s always hope. And having said that, I must again point out that the bold breakout in equities (tinted in green on the ES below) fizzled swiftly (see red arrow), and the market has been unable to get its old verve back. My fervent plea to the market gods, of course, is that we slip below last week’s lows, and the Trump trauma can really start to sink its teeth in.

0206-busted

Ramsey’s Year-End Review

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Note from Tim: our own Davis Ramsey was kind enough to compose this breakdown of his trading performance. I’d say he’s got Gartman beat!

Conducting a thorough year end review of your trading results is of the utmost importance. While regular monthly reviews are good snapshots and can keep you on the right track, looking back over a full year can show you some important big picture mistakes or successes that you might otherwise overlook.

0204-ramsey1 (more…)

Almost There Now

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SPX doesn’t seem to miss many opportunities to just lie down and take a nap for awhile these days, and Wednesday and Thursday were irritatingly action free, but the thrust up from the triangle has finally got started today. SPX has come close to the ATH retest at the time of writing, and may make it before the close, but regardless of that we should see that full ATH retest and the two main options after that are either a marginal higher high and fail, or a move up to rising wedge resistance with resistance on both the large and small rising wedges currently in the 2312 area.

I’m favoring the latter option as the that gives time for both NDX and RUT to retest their all time highs as well. Either way the swing high should be in by the close on Wednesday. SPX 60min chart:

170203 SPX 60min

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