Bubble Burst or Belch?

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UNRELATED PREFACE – – Mille grazie for the wonderful feedback from the prior post about the comments section. Your feedback was super-helpful (particular Tyler’s). Rest assured, almost NOTHING is going to change about the comments system. I honestly just have two or three tiny “housekeeping” tweaks I want to do. Really the only “change’ I was thinking about wasn’t even a change, but simply to offer a alternate means to look at the comments are a continuous stream, as opposed to being beneath a post. But the existing manner would still absolutely be intact! Again, thank you. Now, on to my late night random thoughts……….

The recent selloff in Bitcoin garnered a lot of media attention. I enjoy an objective viewpoint (unlike equities, in which I am shamelessly bearishly biased), because I don’t trade cryptos, so allow me to offer an observation about the following chart……..

bitcoin

As I’ve tinted above, there have certainly been other instances in the past in which Bitcoin seems to have “topped out” and fallen. These instances have been followed by a resolute strengthening and a surge to new lifetime highs. I suspect the world of HODL’ers is counting on this to happen again.

It may. Or it might not. I think there are a couple of novel properties to this most recent top:

(1) It’s much, much bigger. Just look at the chart. This pattern is at least twice the size, in both dimensions, of the others.

(2) The price is a lot higher. Look, let’s get real for just a moment. Recovering from a top at $2,000 is easier than recovering from a top at $20,000, because the underlying value – – which is to say nothing but the human imagination – – hasn’t changed. So getting folks to give up that much fiat currency in exchange for a $BTC is tougher, particularly given the 50% drubbing that’s been suffered recently.

I certainly think the bounce is going to offer some hope, and it could go to $12k, $13k, $14k……..errr, well, maybe not that far. But my point is that if, unlike times past, the price assault “peters out” within the confines of that topping pattern and starts reversing, you could easily see this creature tromping around the $6,000 level and making predictions for $300,000 $BTC more laughable than ever.

Just one man’s opinion.

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