Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

10-Year Treasury Yields on the Rise

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The following two monthly charts show that 10-year Treasury Yields ($TNX) are on the rise.

The first chart shows that it has popped above the upper edge of a very long-term downtrend channel and is headed for near-term major resistance at 30.00.

The second one shows that price has broken above a -1 standard deviation level of a long-term downtrending regression channel.

Whether or not 30.00, if reached, would have any real negative impact on equities, may be looked at in context as to where it was at its height in 2007 (just prior to the financial crisis) and the economic conditions in play at that time, compared with current conditions (as well as the financial soundness of the major banks). (more…)

Said and Done

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Completely by chance, I stumbled across this video of a 17 year old high school junior named Sam Berns who had an extremely rare disease that aged him at a highly accelerated rate. Even though he was 17, he looked 90. I clicked the link out of curiosity, but I was transfixed for the entire video.

As I was watching it, I thought to myself, “He looks so frail – – I wonder if he’s still alive.” But I soon found out that a very short time after this video was made, he died – – basically of “old age”, in spite of being in high school. The simple truth is, not all of us become the men we once hoped we might be. But we are all God’s creatures.  I hope you find the video inspiring.

Island Top on SPX

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Well obviously SPX didn’t do the higher high that I would have preferred, and this morning’s gap down broke down through rising wedge support and also gapped back through the open breakaway gap up from 2839.25. This currently leaves a decent quality island top on SPX and an open breakaway gap down from 2853.53 that I wouldn’t expect to see filled until the current decline is finished.

No clear reversal pattern yet, though there is a poor to medium quality H&S option that I have marked on the chart below. The minimum targets I would generally be looking for on a break of a rising wedge like this are the 38.2% or 50% retracement targets in the 2797 or 2773 areas respectively. SPX 60min chart:

180130 SPX 60min (more…)