
Red Bull Cocktails

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Fear, as measured by the VIX volatility index, is less than half what it was just a month ago. LESS THAN HALF.

After the breakout from its descending channel of 2018 (see green tint below), emerging markets have picked up speed:

If you need any evidence as to much badly this market WANTS to go higher, just compare yesterday morning with this morning. Yesterday morning, none other than Wilbur Ross declared publicly that China and the US were “miles and miles apart”. You would think that would send the market crashing. Instead, the ES went down two points before rallying strongly for the day. Contrast that with this morning in which a RUMOR that some negotiators are TRAVELING to D.C., and equities are exploding higher across the board based on nothing but that.

SPX went up through both of the annual pivot and 50dma resistance levels and has come close to a test of declining resistance from the all time highs, now in the 2690 area. I was talking earlier this month about the vital importance of monthly closing resistance at the monthly middle band, now at 2664. In the event that there is a clear close in January back above it, then the odds would strongly favor a retest of the all time high before there was anything more than a marginal lower low on SPX. The last time there was a significant monthly closing break back over the middle band in a possible bear market without such an ATH retest coming next was over 60 years ago.
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