Preface from Tim: as with the prior post from Binkius, this was not originally submitted as a post. Instead, it was a personal email to me. But, as before, Binkius has kindly granted me permission to reprint it here as a post. I frankly find his insights more insightful than anything else I’ve read about the US/China trade dealings, and I’m grateful to him for his continued unique perspective.

The infamous Roman emperor Caligula rashly decided that he could invade Britain. When the Roman legions stood on the shores of the English channel the Roman generals realized that the mad emperor could not put together a coherent logistical/economic plan to get the troops across. Eventually, Caligula lost interest in his folly and told his troops to collect seashells to bring back to Rome for a triumphal procession of his great military prowess.