Reading the Tea Leaves

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Before I begin, I wanted to mention (again) a very handy feature in the comments section which I introduced years ago: the Ignore button. I get emails from time to time from folks who have no interest in the political chit-chat on the site, or they find certain individuals to be tedious, vexing, or annoying.

This is NOT a hard problem to solve. Just click on the Ignore button (it looks like a “stop!” hand) and, voila, your troubles are over. That person is no longer part of your life.


Now that we’ve tacked more than 2,000 points onto the Dow (for absolutely no reason – – let’s face it, nothing material has changed in any respect except the quality of the jawboning), let’s take a look at the latest Great White Hope for equity bulls in this morning’s news:


So the good news (for bulls) is that they didn’t jab chopsticks into each other’s eyeballs and end the talks. There are a lot of feel-good words being bandied about (just like, let’s say, at the G20 in Argentina) and a statement is going to be coming out Real Soon Now. On top of it, holiest of holies, China has agreed to buy some more soybeans. Our worries are through!

Listen, folks, here’s my opinion: deal or no deal, it won’t make any difference. China and the U.S. can announce the friendlist, bestest, biggest, superest deal in the history of anything, and after all the excitement and one-day burst of buying is over………… won’t make any difference.

The globe’s problems and overhangs aren’t going to vanish because someone announces some papering-over of a trade relationship. Sure, it would absolutely goose the market some more (and let’s not forget that no deal could be made), but I’d pay far more attention to, oh, say, the mountain of earnings data during the next couple of weeks rather than some carefully-crafted press releases from a joint trade talks delegation.

The market’s changed. It’s my way or the Huawei now.