Razor’s Edge

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First off, a big thank-you to those of you who have jumped into SlopeRules. There are twenty publicly-available rulesets now, and I encourage all of you to keep adding. One chap wrote me today and said that, even in this “baby steps” version, we’ve already outpaced thinkorswim with their scripting software. I’m delighted Slopers have embraced this new feature on the site. MUCH more to come (IF you keep using it and publishing).

The market is, of course, on the edge of its seat with respect to the potential China/US trade deal. Powell has made clear by his shameless behavior he has absolutely no spine and will do anything Trump says. Powell has no morals, no ethics, and no scruples. He’s also an unabashed liar. So that’s been driving the market higher. Equities love a fraud.

In the executive branch, the President has already made clear March 1st doesn’t mean dick. The Chinese, I suspect, are delighted to have such a pushover to deal with, and it’s most likely some kind of Potemkin Village of a deal will be cobbled together for the benefit of public relations. I am dying – – just dying – – for them to get this goddamned thing signed and announced so we can clear the air. It’s pretty miserable otherwise.

Let’s keep the big picture in perspective. Take a close look at this broken trendline;

The breathtaking countertrend rally that’s taken place since December 26th – – accruing nearly FOUR THOUSAND POINTS on the Dow – – has brought the ES to a very interesting spot.

Looking closer, you can see the two zones that matter. One of them is the triple-top at about 2800 (green tint). The other is the trendline resistance at approximately the yellow tint. The worst thing for the bulls would be for some kind of “deal’ to be announced and for the market to fall. Such an event would demonstrate that, even with Powell’s embarrassing whoring, the market won’t bid itself up any higher. We shall see.

But the man is on some kind of weird soul-saving campaign right now, trying to pretend the Fed’s purpose is to promote equanimity and fairness:

Here’s what I’ve got to say about THAT:

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