Two Views of Tesla

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There is some after-hours excitement regarding Tesla, with the stock up about 8% or so, prompted by strong car delivery figures. I wanted to offer a couple of alternate viewpoints on the same chart.

The first, a bearish one, shows the absolute mountain of overhead supply. Even taking into account the rise after hours (which SlopeCharts has done for us below), all we’re doing is crawling back up to the failure point.

There’s an alternate way to look at this, however. Let’s take a large step back and look at a lot more history. Now let’s imagine, with the same of my tints below, that we’re simply playing out something we have already done. That is: a consolidation period (green tint), a brief, scary dip (magenta), and then a push back into the former range, blissfully nonchalant about the former “top”.

For myself, I have a small position in Tesla, and I suspect I’ll just ditch it in the morning. I wanted to offer the history above, however, to illustrate how the same price action can lead to two equally plausible conclusions.

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