What’s Up, Doge?

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Remember this guy?


He’s the chap that put his entire life savings into that bluest of the blue chips, Dogecoin, early last February. It was a lucky move, because his investment did great, skyrocketing to almost $4 million around the time Elon was hosting SNL. I’m sure he had stars in his eyes.

Well, $DOGE has crumbled from about 74 cents to as low as 16.5 cents yesterday, so an updated story appeared about him:


Now I don’t know the particulars of his investment, but I’m thinking he’s got 5 million coins at a nickel a piece, so he’s still got an absolutely fantastic profit. Yet it’s quite clear his bonanza has had the lion’s share of profits evaporated, but he’s got this to say:


OK, so let’s review:

  1. He put his life savings into a single, very high-risk instrument;
  2. He saw it go up in value about 1,400% in just a couple of months;
  3. It has plunged in value, although it still has about a 300% profit;
  4. He is not selling, however, anticipating that he will hang on tough until DOGE reaches $2, at which time he plans to sell 10% (so, I suppose, no matter what, he can always declare himself a “millionaire“, as if that was a meaningful today as it was in, say, the 1920s).
  5. He has no plans to sell under any circumstances.

Here we see an updated chart, with my best guess as to his buy point (tinted):


And here is what DOGE would have to do (green tint) for this fellow to achieve his goal:


If this were a fictional short story, you’d probably just stop reading, because the ending is way too obvious. What’s going to happen is that DOGE will just move lower and lower, giving him hope each time it bounces (like, say, this very morning) until such time as it actually moves below his purchase price.

He will, at that point, dump his position at a small loss, nursing a lifetime of regret that he didn’t sell when he had a few million bucks in profit.

And, at that point, he simply won’t return the phone calls from reporters.

The End.