ETF Reflections: Rates

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Preface to all ETF Posts: I am composing this on Thursday afternoon, so the charts will be up-to-date as of then. I wanted to make some general comments about specific ETF groupings, principally to give me a little time to not have to worry about creating new content for you good people in the near-term.

Interest rates basically ARE the markets these days, and they will be heavily influenced by the forthcoming yammerings from Jackson Hole. Here we see the lovely ascending channel I’ve drawn for TLT, which approached its midline on Thursday. I don’t think the 40 year bond bull market is over. Indeed, I read a compelling piece which stated that the Fed would be forced to get real interest rates to – – hold on to your cowboy hat – – NEGATIVE 15%.

Here is the double-inverse on TLT, which is TBT. Think of it as a good representation of interest rate direction. If it breaks that ascending trendline, TLT will be well on its way skyward.

The banks are tethered at the waist to interest rates, of course, and I have one important thing to say about the XLF chart: failed bullish breakout.